Katja Grace – Page 5

Time for AI to cross the human performance range in Go

Computer Go took over 30 years to go from beginner level to superhuman.

Time for AI to cross the human performance range in chess

Computer chess took around 50 years to go from beginner level to superhuman level.

Precedents for economic n-year doubling before 4n-year doubling

Does the economy ever double without having first doubled four times slower? Yes, but not since 3000BC.

Discontinuous progress in history: an update

Katja Grace April 2020
We’ve been looking for historic cases of discontinuously fast technological progress, to help with reasoning about the likelihood and consequences of abrupt progress in AI capabilities. We recently finished expanding this investigation to 37 technological trends. This blog post is a quick update on our findings. See the main page on the research and its outgoing links for more details.

Atari early

By Katja Grace, 1 April 2020 Deepmind announced that their Agent57 beats the ‘human baseline’ at all 57 Atari games usually used as a benchmark. I think this is probably enough to resolve one of

Incomplete case studies of discontinuous progress

Published 7 Feb 2020 This is a list of potential cases of discontinuous technological progress that we have investigated partially or not at all. List In the course of investigating cases of potentially discontinuous technological

Effect of AlexNet on historic trends in image recognition

AlexNet did not represent a greater than 10-year discontinuity in fraction of images labeled incorrectly, or log or inverse of this error rate, relative to progress in the past two years of competition data. Details

Historic trends in transatlantic message speed

The speed of delivering a short message across the Atlantic Ocean saw at least three discontinuities of more than ten years before 1929, all of which also were more than one thousand years: a 1465-year

Historic trends in long-range military payload delivery

The speed at which a military payload could cross the Atlantic ocean contained six greater than 10-year discontinuities in 1493 and between 1841 and 1957: Date Mode of transport Knots Discontinuity size(years of progress at

Historic trends in bridge span length

We measure eight discontinuities of over ten years in the history of longest bridge spans, four of them of over one hundred years, five of them robust as to slight changes in trend extrapolation. The

AI Impacts

Articles by Katja Grace