AI Timeline Surveys

2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI

Published June 2016; last substantial update before Oct 2017 The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI is a survey of machine learning researchers that Katja Grace and John Salvatier of AI Impacts ran in

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AI Timeline Surveys

Concrete AI tasks for forecasting

This page contains a list of relatively well specified AI tasks designed for forecasting. Currently all entries were used in the 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI. List Translate a text written in a newly discovered language

Blog

Joscha Bach on remaining steps to human-level AI

By Katja Grace, 29 November 2016 Last year John and I had an interesting discussion with Joscha Bach about what ingredients of human-level artificial intelligence we seem to be missing, and how to improve AI forecasts more generally. Thanks

Blog

Tom Griffiths on Cognitive Science and AI

This is a guest post by Finan Adamson, 8 September 2016 Prof. Tom Griffiths is the director of the Computational Cognitive Science Lab and the Institute of Cognitive and Brain Sciences at UC Berkeley. He

AI Timelines

Conversation with Tom Griffiths

Participants Professor Tom Griffiths, ­ Director of the Computational Cognitive Science Lab and the Institute of Cognitive and Brain Sciences at the University of California, Berkeley. Finan Adamson, ­ AI Impacts. Note: These notes were

Blog

What if you turned the world’s hardware into AI minds?

By Katja Grace, 4 September 2016 In a classic ‘AI takes over the world’ scenario, one of the first things an emerging superintelligence wants to do is steal most of the world’s computing hardware and repurpose it to running the AI’s

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Nature of AI

Sources of advantage for digital agents over biological agents

Artificial agents should have several advantages over humans. Details The following is an excerpt from Superintelligence (Bostrom, 2014),  reproduced with permission. It outlines ten advantages Bostrom expects digital intelligences to have over human intelligences. Sources of advantage for digital intelligence Minor

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AI Control

Examples of early action on risks

Details Discussion There are many current efforts to mitigate risks from artificial intelligence. We might learn something about the likelihood of these efforts influencing AI risk by looking at similar past efforts. To this end, we are interested here

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Reference

Selected Citations

This page is out-of-date. Visit the updated version of this page on our wiki. A non-exhaustive collection of places where AI Impacts’ work has been cited. AI Timelines Muehlhauser, Luke. 2015. “What Do We Know

Blog

Error in Armstrong and Sotala 2012

By Katja Grace, 17 May 2016 Can AI researchers say anything useful about when strong AI will arrive? Back in 2012, Stuart Armstrong and Kaj Sotala weighed in on this question in a paper called ‘How We’re