AI Impacts

2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI

Collected data and analysis from a large survey of machine learning researchers.

AI Vignettes Project

An ongoing effort to write concrete plausible future histories of AI development and its social impacts.

Fiction relevant to AI futurism

A list of stories potentially relevant to thinking about the development of advanced AI, including both those intended as futurism and those intended as entertainment.

How energy efficient are human-engineered flight designs relative to natural ones?

Nature is responsible for the most energy efficient flight, according to an investigation of albatrosses, butterflies and nine different human-engineered flying machines.

Time for AI to cross the human performance range in ImageNet image classification

Computer image classification performance took 3 years to go from untrained human level to trained human level

A check written to Charles Lindbergh for winning the Orteig Prize

Outcomes of inducement prizes

This is a dataset of prizes we could find for incentivizing progress toward a specific technical or intellectual goal.

Will Superhuman AI be created?

Superhuman AI appears to be very likely to be created at some point.

List of sources arguing against existential risk from AI

A bibliography of pieces arguing against the idea that advanced AI poses an existential risk to humanity.

List of sources arguing for existential risk from AI

A bibliography of pieces arguing that advanced AI poses an existential risk to humanity.

Incentives to create AI systems known to pose extinction risks

Economic incentives to deploy AI systems seem unlikely to be reliably eliminated by knowledge that those AI systems pose an existential risk.