AI Timeline Surveys

2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI

The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI is a survey of machine learning researchers that AI Impacts ran in collaboration with others in 2016. Details Some results are reported in When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence

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AI Timeline Surveys

Concrete AI tasks for forecasting

This page contains a list of relatively well specified AI tasks designed for forecasting. Currently all entries were used in the 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI. List Translate a text written in a newly discovered language

Blog

Joscha Bach on remaining steps to human-level AI

Last year John and I had an interesting discussion with Joscha Bach about what ingredients of human-level artificial intelligence we seem to be missing, and how to improve AI forecasts more generally. Thanks to Connor Flexman’s summarizing efforts, you can now learn about

AI Timelines

Conversation with Tom Griffiths

Participants Professor Tom Griffiths, ­ Director of the Computational Cognitive Science Lab and the Institute of Cognitive and Brain Sciences at the University of California, Berkeley. Finan Adamson, ­ AI Impacts. Note: These notes were

Blog

What if you turned the world’s hardware into AI minds?

In a classic ‘AI takes over the world’ scenario, one of the first things an emerging superintelligence wants to do is steal most of the world’s computing hardware and repurpose it to running the AI’s own software. This step takes one from ‘super-proficient hacker’

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Nature of AI

Sources of advantage for digital agents over biological agents

Artificial agents should have several advantages over humans. Details The following is an excerpt from Superintelligence (Bostrom, 2014),  reproduced with permission. It outlines ten advantages Bostrom expects digital intelligences to have over human intelligences. Sources of advantage for digital intelligence Minor

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AI Control

Examples of early action on risks

Details Discussion There are many current efforts to mitigate risks from artificial intelligence. We might learn something about the likelihood of these efforts influencing AI risk by looking at similar past efforts. To this end, we are interested here

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Blog

Friendly AI as a global public good

A public good, in the economic sense, can be (roughly) characterized as a desirable good that is likely to be undersupplied, or not supplied at all, by private companies. It generally falls to the government

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Evaluation

Costs of extinction risk mitigation

We very roughly estimate that the annual cost of reducing the probability of human extinction by 0.01% is within the range of $1.1 billion to $3.5 trillion. Introduction This article is intended to be usable