December 2017 – AI Impacts

Effect of marginal hardware on artificial general intelligence

We do not know how AGI will scale with marginal hardware. Several sources of evidence may shed light on this question. Details Background Suppose that at some point in the future, general artificial intelligence can be

Human-level hardware timeline

We estimate that ‘human-level hardware’— hardware able to perform as many computations per second as a human brain, at a similar cost to a human brain—has a 30% chance of having already occurred, a 45%

Chance date bias

There is modest evidence that people consistently forecast events later when asked the probability that the event occurs by a certain year, rather than the year in which a certain probability of the event will

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