2019 – AI Impacts

Comparison of naturally evolved and engineered solutions

This page describes a project that is in progress, and does not yet have results We are comparing naturally evolved and engineered solutions to problems, to learn about regularities that might let us make inferences

Walsh 2017 survey

Toby Walsh surveyed hundreds of experts and non-experts in 2016 and found their median estimates for ‘when a computer might be able to carry out most human professions at least as well as a typical

Conversation with Adam Gleave

AI Impacts talked to AI safety researcher Adam Gleave about his views on AI risk. With his permission, we have transcribed this interview. Participants Adam Gleave — PhD student at the Center for Human-Compatible AI,

Historic trends in ship size

This page may be out-of-date. Visit the updated version of this page on our wiki. Trends for ship tonnage (builder’s old measurement) and ship displacement for Royal Navy first rate line-of-battle ships saw eleven and

Effects of breech loading rifles on historic trends in firearm progress

Published Feb 7 2020 We do not know if breech loading rifles represented a discontinuity in military strength. They probably did not represent a discontinuity in fire rate. Details This case study is part of

Historic trends in transatlantic passenger travel

The speed of human travel across the Atlantic Ocean has seen at least seven discontinuities of more than ten years’ progress at past rates, two of which represented more than one hundred years’ progress at

Robin Hanson on the futurist focus on AI

By Asya Bergal, 13 November 2019 Robert Long and I recently talked to Robin Hanson—GMU economist, prolific blogger, and longtime thinker on the future of AI—about the amount of futurist effort going into thinking about

Conversation with Robin Hanson

AI Impacts talked to economist Robin Hanson about his views on AI risk and timelines. With his permission, we have posted and transcribed this interview. Participants Robin Hanson — Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason

Etzioni 2016 survey

Oren Etzioni surveyed 193 AAAI fellows in 2016 and found that 67% of them expected that ‘we will achieve Superintelligence’ someday, but in more than 25 years. Details Oren Etzioni, CEO of the Allen Institute

Rohin Shah on reasons for AI optimism

By Asya Bergal, 31 October 2019 I along with several AI Impacts researchers recently talked to Rohin Shah about why he is relatively optimistic about AI systems being developed safely. Rohin Shah is a 5th