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AI Timelines

Comparison of naturally evolved and engineered solutions

This page describes a project that is in progress, and does not yet have results We are comparing naturally evolved and engineered solutions to problems, to learn about regularities that might let us make inferences

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AI Timeline Surveys

Walsh 2017 Survey

Toby Walsh surveyed hundreds of experts and non-experts in 2016 and found their median estimates for ‘when a computer might be able to carry out most human professions at least as well as a typical

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Conversation notes

Conversation with Adam Gleave

AI Impacts talked to AI safety researcher Adam Gleave about his views on AI risk. With his permission, we have transcribed this interview. Participants Adam Gleave — PhD student at the Center for Human-Compatible AI,

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Continuity of progress

Historic trends in ship size

Trends for ship tonnage (builder’s old measurement) and ship displacement for Royal Navy first rate line-of-battle ships saw eleven and six discontinuities of between ten and one hundred years respectively during the period 1637-1876, if

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Conversation notes

Conversation with Robin Hanson

AI Impacts talked to economist Robin Hanson about his views on AI risk and timelines. With his permission, we have posted and transcribed this interview. Participants Robin Hanson — Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason

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AI Timeline Surveys

Etzioni 2016 survey

Oren Etzioni surveyed 193 AAAI fellows in 2016 and found that 67% of them expected that ‘we will achieve Superintelligence’ someday, but in more than 25 years. Details Oren Etzioni, CEO of the Allen Institute