AI Impacts

  • About
  • Archives
  • Blog
  • Donate
  • Feedback
  • Home
  • Jobs
  • Selected Citations
  • Sitemap
Home2019

Year: 2019

Blog

Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project: an accompanying blog post

2019-02-07 0

Figure 0: The “four main determinants of forecasting accuracy.” Experience and data from the Good Judgment Project (GJP) provide important evidence about how to make accurate predictions. For a concise summary of the evidence and …

Featured Articles

Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project

2019-02-07 0

According to experience and data from the Good Judgment Project, the following are associated with successful forecasting, in rough decreasing order of combined importance and confidence: Past performance in the same broad domain Making more …

Popular pages

  • 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI
    2016-12-14 15
  • Likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI
    2018-02-23 12
  • Predictions of Human-Level AI Timelines
    2015-06-05 10
  • Global computing capacity
    2016-02-16 10
  • Brain performance in FLOPS
    2015-07-26 9
  • Concrete AI tasks for forecasting
    2016-12-14 6
  • Coordinated human action as example of superhuman intelligence
    2016-01-21 5

Populated categories

AI timelines

> Hardware and AI timelines

  • Human-level hardware
  • Information transfer in the brain

> Predictions of human-level AI timelines

  • AI timeline surveys
  • Interpretation of AI predictions
  • Accuracy of AI predictions

Research problems

Reference

See all (sitemap)

Send us feedback

> Go to the feedback page

CC0
To the extent possible under law, the person who associated CC0 with AI Impacts has waived all copyright and related or neighboring rights to AI Impacts. This work is published from: United States.

RSS Blog RSS
  • Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project: an accompanying blog post
  • Reinterpreting “AI and Compute”
  • On the (In)Applicability of Corporate Rights Cases to Digital Minds
  • Interpreting AI Compute Trends
  • Occasional update July 5 2018
  • The tyranny of the god scenario
  • Brain wiring: The long and short of it
  • Will AI see sudden progress?
  • GoCAS talk on AI Impacts findings
  • Price performance Moore’s Law seems slow
Meta
  • Log in
  • Entries RSS
  • Comments RSS
  • WordPress.org

MH Magazine Wordpress Theme by MH Themes.