Blog

Three kinds of competitiveness

By Daniel Kokotajlo In this post, I distinguish between three different kinds of competitiveness — Performance, Cost, and Date — and explain why I think these distinctions are worth the brainspace they occupy. For example,

Blog

AGI in a vulnerable world

By Asya Bergal I’ve been thinking about a class of AI-takeoff scenarios where a very large number of people can build dangerous, unsafe AGI before anyone can build safe AGI. This seems particularly likely if:

AI Timelines

2019 recent trends in GPU price per FLOPS

We estimate that in recent years, GPU prices have fallen at rates that would yield an order of magnitude over roughly: 17 years for single-precision FLOPS 10 years for half-precision FLOPS 5 years for half-precision