Three kinds of competitiveness

By Daniel Kokotajlo In this post, I distinguish between three different kinds of competitiveness — Performance, Cost, and Date — and explain why I think these distinctions are worth the brainspace they occupy. For example,


AGI in a vulnerable world

By Asya Bergal, Mar 25 2020 I’ve been thinking about a class of AI-takeoff scenarios where a very large number of people can build dangerous, unsafe AGI before anyone can build safe AGI. This seems

AI Timelines

2019 recent trends in GPU price per FLOPS

We estimate that in recent years, GPU prices have fallen at rates that would yield an order of magnitude over roughly: 17 years for single-precision FLOPS 10 years for half-precision FLOPS 5 years for half-precision