Against a General Factor of Doom

If you ask people a bunch of specific doomy questions, and their answers are suspiciously correlated, they might be expressing their p(Doom) for each question instead of answering the questions individually. Using a general factor of doom is unlikely to be an accurate depiction of reality. The future is likely to be surprisingly doomy in some ways and surprisingly tractable in others.


Notes on an Experiment with Markets

AI Impacts decided to try using Manifold Markets to help us plan social events in the evenings of our work retreat. Here are some notes from that experiment.

A check written to Charles Lindbergh for winning the Orteig Prize
AI safety work

Outcomes of inducement prizes

This is a dataset of prizes we could find for incentivizing progress toward a specific technical or intellectual goal.