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Scoring forecasts from the 2016 “Expert Survey on Progress in AI”

Patrick Levermore, 1 March 2023 Summary This document looks at the predictions made by AI experts in The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI, analyses the predictions on ‘Narrow tasks’, and gives a Brier score to

Vignettes workshop

Daniel Kokotajlo June 2021

Write down how AI will go down!

The purpose of philosophical AI will be: To orient ourselves in thinking

Max Noichl 1 This was a prize-winning entry into the Essay Competition on the Automation of Wisdom and Philosophy. Contents SummaryIntroductionAutonomous production of philosophySome grounds for scepticismA lower boundMaking it more concreteFootnotes Summary In this

Machines and Moral Judgment

By Jacob Sparks This was a prize-winning entry into the Essay Competition on the Automation of Wisdom and Philosophy. Contents §1 Good AGI§2 What is a Moral Judgment?§3 Moral Judgments Are Strange§4 Good AGI Requires

Towards the Operationalization of Philosophy & Wisdom

By Thane Ruthenis This was a prize-winning entry into the Essay Competition on the Automation of Wisdom and Philosophy. Contents Summary1. Philosophical Reasoning1A. What Is an Ontology?1B. Tentative Formalization1C. Qualitative Research1D. Qualitative Discoveries Are Often

Some Preliminary Notes on the Promise of a Wisdom Explosion

By Chris Leong This was a prize-winning entry into the Essay Competition on the Automation of Wisdom and Philosophy. Notes

An Overview of “Obvious” Approaches to Training Wise AI Advisors

By Chris Leong This was a prize-winning entry into the Essay Competition on the Automation of Wisdom and Philosophy. I consider four different “obvious” high-level approaches to training wise AI advisors. I consider imitation learning

AI Impacts Quarterly Newsletter, Jan-Mar 2023

Updates, research, and fundraising

What we’ve learned so far from our technological temptations project

The history of geoengineering, nuclear power, and human challenge trials suggest that social norms and regulation exert powerful forces on the use of technology.

Superintelligence Is Not Omniscience

Chaos theory allows us to rigorously show that there are ceilings on our abilities to make some prediction. This post introduces an investigation which explores the relationship between chaos and intelligence in more detail.

A policy guaranteed to increase AI timelines

A redefinition of the second is a foolproof way to increase the number of years between nearly any two events.

You Can’t Predict a Game of Pinball

The uncertainty in the location of the pinball grows by a factor of about 5 every time the ball collides with one of the disks. After 12 bounces, an initial uncertainty in position the size of an atom grows to be as large as the disks themselves. Since you cannot measure the location of a pinball with more than atom-scale precision, it is in principle impossible to predict the motion of a pinball as it bounces between the disks for more than 12 bounces.