No Picture
Accuracy of AI Predictions

Chance date bias

There is modest evidence that people consistently forecast events later when asked the probability that the event occurs by a certain year, rather than the year in which a certain probability of the event will


GoCAS talk on AI Impacts findings

Here is a video summary of some highlights from AI Impacts research over the past years, from the GoCAS Existential Risk workshop in Göteborg in September. Thanks to the folks there for recording it.

AI Timelines

Recent trend in the cost of computing

The cheapest hardware prices (for single precision FLOPS/$) appear to be falling by around an order of magnitude every 10-16 years. This rate is slower than the trend of FLOPS/$ observed over the past quarter century,

No Picture
AI Timeline Surveys

Automation of music production

Most machine learning researchers expect machines will be able to create top quality music by 2036. Contents DetailsEvidence from survey dataSummary resultsDistributions of answers to Taylor question Details Evidence from survey data In the 2016