No Picture
Conversation notes

Conversation with Ernie Davis

AI Impacts spoke with computer scientist Ernie Davis about his views of AI risk. With his permission, we have transcribed this interview. Contents ParticipantsSummaryTranscriptNotes Participants Ernest Davis – professor of computer science at the Courant

No Picture
Historical Continuity of Progress

Methodology for Discontinuous Progress Investigation

AI Impacts’ discontinuous project investigation was conducted according to methodology outlined on this page. Contents DetailsChoosing metricsData collectionDiscontinuity calculationRequirements for measuring discontinuitiesCalculating previous rates of progressTime period selection and trend fittingTrend calculationDiscontinuity measurementReporting discontinuities Details

AI Inputs

AI conference attendance

Six of the largest seven AI conferences hosted a total of 27,396 attendees in 2018. Attendance at these conferences has grown by an average of 21% per year over 2011-2018. These six conferences host around six

AI Timelines

Historical economic growth trends

An analysis of historical growth supports the possibility of radical increases in growth rate. Naive extrapolation of long-term trends would suggest massive increases in growth rate over the coming century, although growth over the last