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AGI in a vulnerable world

I’ve been thinking about a class of AI-takeoff scenarios where a very large number of people can build dangerous, unsafe AGI before anyone can build safe AGI. This seems particularly likely if: It is considerably

AI Timelines

2019 trends in GPU price per FLOPS

We estimate that in recent years, GPU prices have fallen at rates that would yield an order of magnitude over roughly: 17 years for single-precision FLOPS 10 years for half-precision FLOPS 5 years for half-precision

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Continuity of progress

Incomplete case studies of discontinuous progress

This is a list of potential cases of discontinuous technological progress that we have partially investigated. Contents ListThe Haber Process – IIPPrevious explanationAluminium – IIPThe sewing machine – IIPVideo compression – IIPInformation storage volume –

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Continuity of progress

Historic trends in bridge span length

We measure eight discontinuities of over ten years in the history of longest bridge spans, four of them of over one hundred years, five of them robust as to slight changes in trend extrapolation. The

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Continuity of progress

Historic trends in light intensity

Maximum light intensity of artificial light sources has discontinuously increased once that we know of: argon flashes represented roughly 1000 years of progress at past rates. Annual growth in light intensity increased from an average

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Continuity of progress

Historic trends in book production

The number of books produced in the previous hundred years, sampled every hundred or fifty years between 600AD to 1800AD contains five greater than 10-year discontinuities, four of them greater than 100 years. The last