GoCAS talk on AI Impacts findings

Here is a video summary of some highlights from AI Impacts research over the past years, from the GoCAS Existential Risk workshop in Göteborg in September. Thanks to the folks there for recording it.

AI Timelines

Recent trend in the cost of computing

The cheapest hardware prices (for single precision FLOPS/$) appear to be falling by around an order of magnitude every 10-16 years. This rate is slower than the trend of FLOPS/$ observed over the past quarter century,

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AI Timeline Surveys

Automation of music production

Most machine learning researchers expect machines will be able to create top quality music by 2036. Contents DetailsEvidence from survey dataSummary resultsDistributions of answers to Taylor question Details Evidence from survey data In the 2016

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Arguments for AI risk

Stuart Russell’s description of AI risk

Stuart Russell has argued that advanced AI poses a risk, because it will have the ability to make high quality decisions, yet may not share human values perfectly. Details Stuart Russell describes a risk from