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Scoring forecasts from the 2016 “Expert Survey on Progress in AI”

Patrick Levermore, 1 March 2023 Summary This document looks at the predictions made by AI experts in The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI, analyses the predictions on ‘Narrow tasks’, and gives a Brier score to

Vignettes workshop

Daniel Kokotajlo June 2021

Write down how AI will go down!

How bad a future do ML researchers expect?

Every survey respondent’s guess about the future, lined up by expectation of the worst.

How popular is ChatGPT? Part 2: slower growth than Pokémon GO

ChatGPT had unusually fast user growth, but it did not set a record.

How popular is ChatGPT? Part 1: more popular than Taylor Swift

What does search volume tell us about public attention on ChatGPT and AI in general?

The public supports regulating AI for safety

Some survey data

Whole Bird Emulation requires Quantum Mechanics

Birds see magnetic fields using quantum mechanical spin states in their retina. Whole Bird Emulation requires much higher resolution than you might expect.