Range of Human Performance

Time for AI to cross the human range in StarCraft

Updated 22 Oct 2020 Progress in AI StarCraft performance took: ~0 years to reach the level of an untrained human ~21 years to pass from untrained human level to high professional human level ~2 years

AI Timelines

Resolutions of mathematical conjectures over time

Conditioned on being remembered as a notable conjecture, the time-to-proof for a mathematical problem appears to be exponentially distributed with a half-life of about 100 years. However, these observations are likely to be distorted by