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AI Timeline Surveys

Automation of music production

Most machine learning researchers expect machines will be able to create top quality music by 2036. Details Evidence from survey data In the 2016 ESPAI, participants were asked two relevant questions: [Top forty] Compose a

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Arguments for AI risk

Stuart Russell’s description of AI risk

Stuart Russell has argued that advanced AI poses a risk, because it will have the ability to make high quality decisions, yet may not share human values perfectly. Details Stuart Russell describes a risk from

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AI hopes and fears in numbers

People often wonder what AI researchers think about AI risk. A good collection of quotes can tell us that worry about AI is no longer a fringe view: many big names are concerned. But without a great sense of how many

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AI Timeline Surveys

2016 ESPAI questions printout

This page is a printout of the survey questions provided by the Qualtrics website as a word document, and then copied here, for searchability. It contains formatting differences with the survey as received by participants, and probably

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AI Timeline Surveys

Media discussion of 2016 ESPAI

The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI was discussed in at least 20 media outlets, popular blogs, and industry-specific sites that we know of. Most of them were summaries of the survey findings. Commonly

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Some survey results!

We put the main results of our survey of machine learning researchers on AI timelines online recently—see here for the paper. Apologies for the delay—we are trying to avoid spoiling the newsworthiness of the results for potential academic publishers, lest

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AI Timelines

Guide to pages on AI timeline predictions

This page is an informal outline of the other pages on this site about AI timeline predictions made by others. Headings link to higher level pages, intended to summarize the evidence from pages below them. This list was complete on 7 April 2017 (here is