AI Impacts

The unexpected difficulty of comparing AlphaStar to humans

By Rick Korzekwa, 17 September 2019 Artificial intelligence defeated a pair of professional Starcraft II players for the first time in December 2018. Although this was generally regarded as an impressive achievement, it quickly became

Conversation with Paul Christiano

AI Impacts talked to AI safety researcher Paul Christiano about his views on AI risk. With his permission, we have transcribed this interview. Contents ParticipantsSummary Transcript Participants Paul Christiano — OpenAI safety team Asya Bergal

Paul Christiano on the safety of future AI systems

By Asya Bergal, 11 September 2019 As part of our AI optimism project, we talked to Paul Christiano about why he is relatively hopeful about the arrival of advanced AI going well. Paul Christiano works

Soft takeoff can still lead to decisive strategic advantage

By Daniel Kokotajlo, 11 September 2019 Crossposted from the AI Alignment Forum. May contain more technical jargon than usual. [Epistemic status: Argument by analogy to historical cases. Best case scenario it’s just one argument among many.

Ernie Davis on the landscape of AI risks

By Robert Long, 23 August 2019 Earlier this month, I spoke with Ernie Davis about why he is skeptical that risks from superintelligent AI are substantial and tractable enough to merit dedicated work. This was

Conversation with Ernie Davis

AI Impacts spoke with computer scientist Ernie Davis about his views of AI risk. With his permission, we have transcribed this interview. Contents ParticipantsSummaryTranscriptNotes Participants Ernest Davis – professor of computer science at the Courant

Evidence against current methods leading to human level artificial intelligence

This is a list of published arguments that we know of that current methods in artificial intelligence will not lead to human-level AI. Contents DetailsClarificationsMethodsList of argumentsInside view argumentsCapacitiesOutside view argumentsContributionsNotes Details Clarifications We take

Historic trends in land speed records

Land speed records did not see any greater-than-10-year discontinuities relative to linear progress across all records. Considered as several distinct linear trends it saw discontinuities of 12, 13, 25, and 13 years, the first two

Methodology for discontinuous progress investigation

AI Impacts’ discontinuous progress investigation was conducted according to methodology outlined on this page. Contents DetailsOverviewChoosing areasChoosing metricsData collectionDiscontinuity calculationRequirements for measuring discontinuitiesCalculating previous rates of progressTime period selection and trend fittingTrend calculationDiscontinuity measurementReporting discontinuities‘Robust’

Historic trends in particle accelerator performance

Published Feb 7 2020 None of particle energy, center-of-mass energy nor Lorentz factor achievable by particle accelerators appears to have undergone a discontinuity of more than ten years of progress at previous rates. Contents DetailsBackgroundTrendsParticle