AI Impacts

Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project: an accompanying blog post

By Daniel Kokotajlo, 2 July 2019 Figure 0: The “four main determinants of forecasting accuracy.” Experience and data from the Good Judgment Project (GJP) provide important evidence about how to make accurate predictions. For a

Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project

According to experience and data from the Good Judgment Project, the following are associated with successful forecasting, in rough decreasing order of combined importance and confidence: Past performance in the same broad domain Making more

Reinterpreting “AI and Compute”

This is a guest post by Ben Garfinkel. We revised it slightly, at his request, on February 9, 2019. A recent OpenAI blog post, “AI and Compute,” showed that the amount of computing power consumed

Time for AI to cross the human performance range in diabetic retinopathy

In diabetic retinopathy, automated systems started out just below expert human level performance, and took around ten years to reach expert human level performance. Contents DetailsContributionsFootnotes Details Diabetic retinopathy is a complication of diabetes in

AGI-11 survey

The AGI-11 survey was a survey of 60 participants at the AGI-11 conference. In it: Nearly half of respondents believed that AGI would appear before 2030. Nearly 90% of respondents believed that AGI would appear

On the (in)applicability of corporate rights cases to digital minds

This is a guest cross-post by Cullen O’Keefe, 28 September 2018 High-Level Takeaway The extension of rights to corporations likely does not provide useful analogy to potential extension of rights to digital minds. Introduction Examining

Hardware overhang

Hardware overhang refers to a situation where large quantities of computing hardware can be diverted to running powerful AI systems as soon as the software is developed. Details Definition In the context of AI forecasting, hardware overhang refers

Historic trends in structure heights

Trends for tallest ever structure heights, tallest ever freestanding structure heights, tallest existing freestanding structure heights, and tallest ever building heights have each seen 5-8 discontinuities of more than ten years. These are: Djoser and

Interpreting AI compute trends

This is a guest post by Ryan Carey, 10 July 2018. Over the last few years, we know that AI experiments have used much more computation than previously. But just last month, an investigation by

Occasional update July 5 2018

By Katja Grace, 5 July 2018 Before I get to substantive points, there has been some confusion over the distinction between blog posts and pages on AI Impacts. To make it clearer, this blog post