Hardware overhang refers to a situation where large quantities of computing hardware can be diverted to running powerful AI systems as soon as the software is developed. Details Definition In the context of AI forecasting, hardware overhang refers
Trends for tallest ever structure heights, tallest ever freestanding structure heights, tallest existing freestanding structure heights, and tallest ever building heights have each seen 5-8 discontinuities of more than ten years. These are: Djoser and
This is a guest post by Ryan Carey, 10 July 2018. Over the last few years, we know that AI experiments have used much more computation than previously. But just last month, an investigation by
By Katja Grace, 5 July 2018 Before I get to substantive points, there has been some confusion over the distinction between blog posts and pages on AI Impacts. To make it clearer, this blog post
Compute used in the largest AI training runs appears to have roughly doubled every 3.5 months between 2012 and 2018. Details According to Amodei and Hernandez, on the OpenAI Blog: …since 2012, the amount of compute
By Michael Wulfsohn, 6 April 2018 I was convinced. An intelligence explosion would result in the sudden arrival of a superintelligent machine. Its abilities would far exceed those of humans in ways we can’t imagine
This is an incomplete list of concrete projects that we think are tractable and important. We may do any of them ourselves, but many also seem feasible to work on independently. Those we consider especially
By Tegan McCaslin, 30 March 2018 When I took on the task of counting up all the brain’s fibers and figuratively laying them end-to-end, I had a sense that it would be relatively easy–do a
The human brain’s approximately 86 billion neurons are probably connected by something like 850,000 km of axons and dendrites. Of this total, roughly 80% is short-range, local connections (averaging 680 microns in length), and approximately
By Katja Grace, 24 February 2018 Will advanced AI let some small group of people or AI systems take over the world? AI X-risk folks and others have accrued lots of arguments about this over