By Daniel Kokotajlo In this post, I distinguish between three different kinds of competitiveness — Performance, Cost, and Date — and explain why I think these distinctions are worth the brainspace they occupy. For example,
Daniel Kokotajlo, Feb 29, 2020 Epistemic status: I am not a historian, nor have I investigated these case studies in detail. I admit I am still uncertain about how the conquistadors were able to colonize
Crossposted from the AI Alignment Forum. May contain more technical jargon than usual. [Epistemic status: Argument by analogy to historical cases. Best case scenario it’s just one argument among many. Edit: Also, thanks to feedback from
Figure 0: The “four main determinants of forecasting accuracy.” Experience and data from the Good Judgment Project (GJP) provide important evidence about how to make accurate predictions. For a concise summary of the evidence and
According to experience and data from the Good Judgment Project, the following are associated with successful forecasting, in rough decreasing order of combined importance and confidence: Past performance in the same broad domain Making more