Daniel Kokotajlo – AI Impacts

Relevant pre-AGI possibilities

Daniel Kokotajlo
Brainstorm of ways the world could be relevantly different by the time advanced AGI arrives

Three kinds of competitiveness

By Daniel Kokotajlo In this post, I distinguish between three different kinds of competitiveness — Performance, Cost, and Date — and explain why I think these distinctions are worth the brainspace they occupy. For example,

Cortés, Pizarro, and Afonso as precedents for takeover

Epistemic status: I am not a historian, nor have I investigated these case studies in detail. I admit I am still uncertain about how the conquistadors were able to colonize so much of the world

Soft takeoff can still lead to decisive strategic advantage

Crossposted from the AI Alignment Forum. May contain more technical jargon than usual. [Epistemic status: Argument by analogy to historical cases. Best case scenario it’s just one argument among many. Edit: Also, thanks to feedback from

Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project: an accompanying blog post

Figure 0: The “four main determinants of forecasting accuracy.” Experience and data from the Good Judgment Project (GJP) provide important evidence about how to make accurate predictions. For a concise summary of the evidence and

Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project

According to experience and data from the Good Judgment Project, the following are associated with successful forecasting, in rough decreasing order of combined importance and confidence: Past performance in the same broad domain Making more