Katja Grace – Page 6

Historic trends in light intensity

Maximum light intensity of artificial light sources has discontinuously increased once that we know of: argon flashes represented roughly 1000 years of progress at past rates. Annual growth in light intensity increased from an average

Historic trends in book production

The number of books produced in the previous hundred years, sampled every hundred or fifty years between 600AD to 1800AD contains five greater than 10-year discontinuities, four of them greater than 100 years. The last

Historic trends in telecommunications performance

Published February 2020 January 2023 note: This page contains errors that have not yet been corrected. Our overall conclusion, that there were likely no discontinuities in our metrics for telecommunications performance are likely unaffected by

Historic trends in slow light technology

Published Feb 7 2020 Group index of light appears to have seen discontinuities of 22 years in 1995 from Coherent Population Trapping (CPT) and 37 years in 1999 from EIT (condensate). Pulse delay of light

Effect of Eli Whitney’s cotton gin on historic trends in cotton ginning

We estimate that Eli Whitney’s cotton gin represented a 10 to 25 year discontinuity in pounds of cotton ginned per person per day, in 1793. Two innovations in 1747 and 1788 look like discontinuities of

Comparison of naturally evolved and engineered solutions

This page describes a project that is in progress, and does not yet have results We are comparing naturally evolved and engineered solutions to problems, to learn about regularities that might let us make inferences

Historic trends in ship size

This page may be out-of-date. Visit the updated version of this page on our wiki. Trends for ship tonnage (builder’s old measurement) and ship displacement for Royal Navy first rate line-of-battle ships saw eleven and

Effects of breech loading rifles on historic trends in firearm progress

Published Feb 7 2020 We do not know if breech loading rifles represented a discontinuity in military strength. They probably did not represent a discontinuity in fire rate. Details This case study is part of

Historic trends in transatlantic passenger travel

The speed of human travel across the Atlantic Ocean has seen at least seven discontinuities of more than ten years’ progress at past rates, two of which represented more than one hundred years’ progress at

Etzioni 2016 survey

Oren Etzioni surveyed 193 AAAI fellows in 2016 and found that 67% of them expected that ‘we will achieve Superintelligence’ someday, but in more than 25 years. Details Oren Etzioni, CEO of the Allen Institute

AI Impacts

Articles by Katja Grace