Speed of AI Transition

Was the industrial revolution a drastic departure from historic trends?

We have not researched this topic. This page is a tentative list of sources.

Time for AI to cross the human range in English draughts

AI took over 30 years to go from beginner level to superhuman level

Time for AI to cross the human range in StarCraft

AI took about twenty years to go from beginner level to high professional level.

Time for AI to cross the human performance range in ImageNet image classification

Computer image classification performance took 3 years to go from untrained human level to trained human level

Time for AI to cross the human performance range in Go

Computer Go took over 30 years to go from beginner level to superhuman.

Time for AI to cross the human performance range in chess

Computer chess took around 50 years to go from beginner level to superhuman level.

Incomplete case studies of discontinuous progress

Published 7 Feb 2020 This is a list of potential cases of discontinuous technological progress that we have investigated partially or not at all. List In the course of investigating cases of potentially discontinuous technological

Effect of AlexNet on historic trends in image recognition

AlexNet did not represent a greater than 10-year discontinuity in fraction of images labeled incorrectly, or log or inverse of this error rate, relative to progress in the past two years of competition data. Details

Historic trends in transatlantic message speed

The speed of delivering a short message across the Atlantic Ocean saw at least three discontinuities of more than ten years before 1929, all of which also were more than one thousand years: a 1465-year

Historic trends in long-range military payload delivery

The speed at which a military payload could cross the Atlantic ocean contained six greater than 10-year discontinuities in 1493 and between 1841 and 1957: Date Mode of transport Knots Discontinuity size(years of progress at