AI Timelines

Historical economic growth trends

An analysis of historical growth supports the possibility of radical increases in growth rate. Naive extrapolation of long-term trends would suggest massive increases in growth rate over the coming century, although growth over the last

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Returns to scale in research

When universities or university departments produce research outputs—such as published papers—they sometimes experience increasing returns to scale, sometimes constant returns to scale, and sometimes decreasing returns to scale. At the level of nations however, R&D

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Is the Range of Human Intelligence Small?

The range of human intelligence

The range of human intelligence seems large relative to the space below it, as measured by performance on tasks we care about—despite the fact that human brains are extremely similar to each other.  Without knowing

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Cases of Discontinuous Technological Progress

We have verified three technological trends which underwent a discontinuous jump in improvement equivalent to more than several decades at previous rates. These are relative effectiveness of explosives, temperature of superconductivity and building height. We have verified two more