AI Inputs

AI conference attendance

Six of the largest seven AI conferences hosted a total of 27,396 attendees in 2018. Attendance at these conferences has grown by an average of 21% per year over 2011-2018. These six conferences host around six

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Accuracy of AI Predictions

Chance date bias

There is modest evidence that people consistently forecast events later when asked the probability that the event occurs by a certain year, rather than the year in which a certain probability of the event will


Joscha Bach on remaining steps to human-level AI

Last year John and I had an interesting discussion with Joscha Bach about what ingredients of human-level artificial intelligence we seem to be missing, and how to improve AI forecasts more generally. Thanks to Connor Flexman’s summarizing efforts, you can now learn about

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Selected Citations

This page is a non-exhaustive collection of places where AI Impacts’ work has been cited. AI Timelines Muehlhauser, Luke. 2015. “What Do We Know about AI Timelines?” Open Philanthropy Project. (archive) Muehlhauser, Luke. 2015. “What should we


Error in Armstrong and Sotala 2012

Can AI researchers say anything useful about when strong AI will arrive? Back in 2012, Stuart Armstrong and Kaj Sotala weighed in on this question in a paper called ‘How We’re Predicting AI—or Failing To‘. They looked


Metasurvey: predict the predictors

As I mentioned earlier, we’ve been making a survey for AI researchers. The survey asks when AI will be able to do things like build a lego kit according to the instructions, be a surgeon, or radically accelerate global technological development. It also asks


Concrete AI tasks bleg

We’re making a survey. I hope to write soon about our general methods and plans, so anyone kind enough to criticize them has the chance. Before that though, we have a different request: we want a list of concrete tasks that AI can’t do yet,