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Accuracy of AI Predictions

Chance date bias

There is modest evidence that people consistently forecast events later when asked the probability that the event occurs by a certain year, rather than the year in which a certain probability of the event will

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Joscha Bach on remaining steps to human-level AI

Last year John and I had an interesting discussion with Joscha Bach about what ingredients of human-level artificial intelligence we seem to be missing, and how to improve AI forecasts more generally. Thanks to Connor Flexman’s summarizing efforts, you can now learn about

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Reference

Selected Citations

This page is a non-exhaustive collection of places where AI Impacts’ work has been cited. AI Timelines Muehlhauser, Luke. 2015. “What Do We Know about AI Timelines?” Open Philanthropy Project. (archive) Muehlhauser, Luke. 2015. “What should we

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Error in Armstrong and Sotala 2012

Can AI researchers say anything useful about when strong AI will arrive? Back in 2012, Stuart Armstrong and Kaj Sotala weighed in on this question in a paper called ‘How We’re Predicting AI—or Failing To‘. They looked

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Metasurvey: predict the predictors

As I mentioned earlier, we’ve been making a survey for AI researchers. The survey asks when AI will be able to do things like build a lego kit according to the instructions, be a surgeon, or radically accelerate global technological development. It also asks

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Concrete AI tasks bleg

We’re making a survey. I hope to write soon about our general methods and plans, so anyone kind enough to criticize them has the chance. Before that though, we have a different request: we want a list of concrete tasks that AI can’t do yet,

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Why do AGI researchers expect AI so soon?

People have been predicting when human-level AI will appear for many decades. A few years ago, MIRI made a big, organized collection of such predictions, along with helpful metadata. We are grateful, and just put up a page about this dataset, including some analysis. Some of you saw

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AI Timelines

The cost of TEPS

A billion Traversed Edges Per Second (a GTEPS) can be bought for around $0.26/hour via a powerful supercomputer, including hardware and energy costs only. We do not know if GTEPS can be bought more cheaply elsewhere. We estimate that