No Picture
Continuity of progress

Historic trends in book production

The number of books produced in the previous hundred years, sampled every hundred or fifty years between 600AD to 1800AD contains five greater than 10-year discontinuities, four of them greater than 100 years. The last

No Picture
Continuity of progress

Penicillin and historic syphilis trends

Penicillin did not precipitate a discontinuity of more than ten years in deaths from syphilis in the US. Nor were there other discontinuities in that trend between 1916 and 2015. The number of syphilis cases

AI Inputs

AI conference attendance

Six of the largest seven AI conferences hosted a total of 27,396 attendees in 2018. Attendance at these conferences has grown by an average of 21% per year over 2011-2018. These six conferences host around six

No Picture
Accuracy of AI Predictions

Chance date bias

There is modest evidence that people consistently forecast events later when asked the probability that the event occurs by a certain year, rather than the year in which a certain probability of the event will

Blog

Joscha Bach on remaining steps to human-level AI

Last year John and I had an interesting discussion with Joscha Bach about what ingredients of human-level artificial intelligence we seem to be missing, and how to improve AI forecasts more generally. Thanks to Connor Flexman’s summarizing efforts, you can now learn about

No Picture
Reference

Selected Citations

This page is a non-exhaustive collection of places where AI Impacts’ work has been cited. AI Timelines Muehlhauser, Luke. 2015. “What Do We Know about AI Timelines?” Open Philanthropy Project. (archive) Muehlhauser, Luke. 2015. “What should we

Blog

Error in Armstrong and Sotala 2012

Can AI researchers say anything useful about when strong AI will arrive? Back in 2012, Stuart Armstrong and Kaj Sotala weighed in on this question in a paper called ‘How We’re Predicting AI—or Failing To‘. They looked