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Against a General Factor of Doom

If you ask people a bunch of specific doomy questions, and their answers are suspiciously correlated, they might be expressing their p(Doom) for each question instead of answering the questions individually. Using a general factor of doom is unlikely to be an accurate depiction of reality. The future is likely to be surprisingly doomy in some ways and surprisingly tractable in others.

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AI Impacts Internship, Summer 2022

Overview Location: Berkeley/San Francisco (may consider a remote option) Duration: 10-14 weeks, most likely starting mid-June Compensation: Full-time pay (minimum $35/hr), plus cost of travel. May include assistance with housing Application deadline: March 15, 2022

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Automated intelligence is not AI

Katja Grace Nov 2020

Sometimes we think of ‘artificial intelligence’ as whatever technology ultimately automates human cognitive labor…

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Continuity of progress

Historic trends in flight airspeed records

Flight airspeed records between 1903 and 1976 contained one greater than 10-year discontinuity: a 19-year discontinuity corresponding to the Fairey Delta 2 flight in 1956. The average annual growth in flight airspeed markedly increased with