AI Impacts

Answering decision-relevant questions about the future of artificial intelligence

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Likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI

We aren’t convinced by any of the arguments we’ve seen to expect large discontinuity in AI progress above the extremely low base rate for all technologies. However this topic is controversial, and many thinkers on

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  • Misalignment and misuse: whose values are manifest?
  • Automated intelligence is not AI
  • Relevant pre-AGI possibilities
  • Description vs simulated prediction
  • Discontinuous progress in history: an update
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