Reference – AI Impacts

Preliminary survey of prescient actions

In a short search, we did not find clear examples of ‘prescient actions’—specific efforts to address severe and complex problems decades ahead of time and in the absence of broader scientific concern, experience with analogous problems…

Historic trends in telecommunications performance

Published February 2020 January 2023 note: This page contains errors that have not yet been corrected. Our overall conclusion, that there were likely no discontinuities in our metrics for telecommunications performance are likely unaffected by

Hardware overhang

Hardware overhang refers to a situation where large quantities of computing hardware can be diverted to running powerful AI systems as soon as the software is developed. Details Definition In the context of AI forecasting, hardware overhang refers

Computing hardware performance data collections

This is a list of public datasets that we know of containing either measured or theoretical performance numbers for computer processors. List Top 500 maintains a list of the top 500 supercomputers, updated every six

2016 ESPAI questions printout

This is a list of questions from the 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI. Details This page is a printout of questions from the 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI provided by the

Media discussion of 2016 ESPAI

The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI was discussed in at least 20 media outlets, popular blogs, and industry-specific sites that we know of. Most of them were summaries of the survey findings. Commonly

Concrete AI tasks for forecasting

This page contains a list of relatively well specified AI tasks designed for forecasting. Currently all entries were used in the 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI. List Translate a text written in a newly discovered language

Selected Citations

This page is out-of-date. Visit the updated version of this page on our wiki. A non-exhaustive collection of places where AI Impacts’ work has been cited. AI Timelines Muehlhauser, Luke. 2015. “What Do We Know

Glossary of AI Risk Terminology and common AI terms

Terms A AI timeline An expectation about how much time will lapse before important AI events, especially the advent of human-level AI or a similar milestone. The term can also refer to the actual periods of time (which are not