We know of three technological trends which underwent a discontinuous jump in improvement equivalent to more than several decades at previous rates. These are relative effectiveness of explosives, temperature of superconductivity and building height. We know of two more …
Nuclear weapons were a radical improvement over previous weapons in terms of energy released per weight of explosive (relative effectiveness). They do not appear to represent a substantial discontinuity in terms of cost-effectiveness of explosives, though the evidence there is weak. …
Baum et al. surveyed 21 attendees of the AGI-09 conference, on AGI timelines with and without extra funding. They also asked about other details of AGI development such as social impacts, and promising approaches. Their findings include the following: …
A survey of twenty-six technology experts in 2005 produced a median of 2085 as the year in which artificial intelligence would be able to functionally replicate a human brain (p344). They rated this application 5.6/10 in beneficialness to …
A seemingly informal seven-question poll was taken of participants at the AI@50 conference in 2006. 41% of respondents said it would take more than 50 years for AI to simulate every aspect of human intelligence, and 41% …
This is an incomplete list of early works we have found discussing AI or AI related problems. List 1. Claude Shannon (1950), in Programming a Computer for Playing Chess, offers the following list of “possible developments in …
The Future of Humanity Institute administered a survey in 2011 at their Winter Intelligence AGI impacts conference. Participants’ median estimate for a 50% chance of human-level AI was 2050. Details AI timelines question The survey included …
In a small informal survey running since 2012, AI researchers generally estimated that their subfields have moved less than ten percent of the way to human-level intelligence. Only one (in the slowest moving subfield) observed acceleration. …
Vincent Müller and Nick Bostrom of FHI conducted a poll of four groups of AI experts in 2012-13. Combined, the median date by which they gave a 10% chance of human-level AI was 2022, and the …
Alexander Kruel interviewed 37 experts on areas related to AI, starting in 2011 and probably ending in 2012. Of those answering the question in a full quantitative way, median estimates for human-level AI (assuming business as usual) …
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