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Featured Articles

Cases of Discontinuous Technological Progress

We know of two technologies which underwent a discontinuous jump in improvement equivalent to more than several decades at previous rates. These are explosives and superconductors. We know of two more cases of smaller discontinuities, and several promising cases to investigate

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Featured Articles

Discontinuity from Nuclear Weapons

Nuclear weapons were a radical improvement over previous weapons in terms of energy released per weight of explosive (relative effectiveness). They do not appear to represent a substantial discontinuity in terms of cost-effectiveness of explosives, though the evidence there is weak.

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AI Timeline Surveys

AGI-09 Survey

Baum et al. surveyed 21 attendees of the AGI-09 conference, on AGI timelines with and without extra funding. They also asked about other details of AGI development such as social impacts, and promising approaches. Their findings include the following:

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AI Timeline Surveys

Bainbridge Survey

A survey of twenty-six technology experts in 2005 produced a median of 2085 as the year in which artificial intelligence would be able to functionally replicate a human brain (p344). They rated this application 5.6/10 in beneficialness to

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AI Timeline Surveys

AI@50 Survey

A seemingly informal seven-question poll was taken of participants at the AI@50 conference in 2006. 41% of respondents said it would take more than 50 years for AI to simulate every aspect of human intelligence, and 41%

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AI Timelines

Early Views of AI

This is an incomplete list of early works we have found discussing AI or AI related problems. List 1. Claude Shannon (1950), in Programming a Computer for Playing Chess, offers the following list of “possible developments in

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AI Timeline Surveys

FHI Winter Intelligence Survey

The Future of Humanity Institute administered a survey in 2011 at their Winter Intelligence AGI impacts conference. Participants’ median estimate for a 50% chance of human-level AI was 2050. Details AI timelines question The survey included

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AI Timeline Surveys

Hanson AI Expert Survey

In a small informal survey running since 2012, AI researchers generally estimated that their subfields have moved less than ten percent of the way to human-level intelligence. Only one (in the slowest moving subfield) observed acceleration.

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AI Timeline Surveys

Müller and Bostrom AI Progress Poll

Vincent Müller and Nick Bostrom of FHI conducted a poll of four groups of AI experts in 2012-13. Combined, the median date by which they gave a 10% chance of human-level AI was 2022, and the

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AI Timeline Surveys

Kruel AI Interviews

Alexander Kruel interviewed 37 experts on areas related to AI, starting in 2011 and probably ending in 2012. Of those answering the question in a full quantitative way, median estimates for human-level AI (assuming business as usual)