No Picture
AI Timeline Surveys

Klein AGI Survey

Futurist Bruce Klein ran an informal online survey in 2007, asking ‘When will AI surpass human-level intelligence?”. He got 888 responses, from ‘friends’ of unspecified nature. Details The results are shown below, taken from Baum et al,

No Picture
Accuracy of AI Predictions

Similarity Between Historical and Contemporary AI Predictions

AI predictions from public statements made before and after 2000 form similar distributions. Such predictions from before 1980 appear to be more optimistic, though predictions from a larger early survey are not. Discussion Similarity of predictions over time MIRI dataset