By Katja Grace, 21 January 2015 Once you have normal-human-level AI, how long does it take to get Einstein-level AI? We have seen that a common argument for ‘not long at all’ based on brain size does not
By Katja Grace, 18 January 2015 Here is a superficially plausible argument: the brains of the slowest humans are almost identical to those of the smartest humans. And thus—in the great space of possible intelligence—the ‘human-level’ band must be very narrow. Since
By Katja Grace, 15 January 2015 An interesting thing about the survey data on timelines to human-level AI is the apparent incongruity between answers to ‘when will human-level AI arrive?’ and answers to ‘how much of the way to human-level AI have
By Katja Grace, 14 January 2015 On Monday 26 January we will be holding a discussion on promising research projects relating to ‘multipolar‘ AI scenarios. That is, future scenarios where society persists in containing a large number of similarly
By Katja Grace, 12 January 2015 We recently wrote about Donald Michie’s survey on timelines to human-level AI. Michie’s survey is especially interesting because it was taken in 1972, which is three decades earlier than any other surveys we
By Katja Grace, 11 January 2015 Nuclear weapons were radically more powerful per pound than any previous bomb. Their appearance was a massive discontinuity in the long-run path of explosive progress, that we have lately discussed.
By Katja Grace, 10 January 2015 If you want to know when human-level AI will be developed, a natural approach is to ask someone who works on developing AI. You might however be put off by such predictions being regularly criticized
This page is out-of-date. Visit the updated version of this page on our wiki. Published 10 January 2015 We know of twelve surveys on the predicted timing of human-level AI. If we collapse a few slightly different meanings of