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Recently at AI Impacts

We’ve been working on a few longer term projects lately, so here’s an update in the absence of regular page additions. New researchers Stephanie Zolayvar and John Salvatier have recently joined us, to try out research here. Stephanie

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AI Risk Terminology

AI timeline – an expectation about how much time will lapse before important AI events, especially the advent of human-level AI or a similar milestone. The term can also refer to the actual periods of time (which are not yet

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AI timelines and strategies

AI Impacts sometimes invites guest posts from fellow thinkers on the future of AI. These are not intended to relate closely to our current research, nor to necessarily reflect our views. However we think they are worthy contributions to the discussion of AI forecasting and strategy. This

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Introducing research bounties

Sometimes we like to experiment with novel research methods and formats. Today we are introducing ‘AI Impacts Research Bounties‘, in which you get money if you send us inputs to some of our research. To start, we have two bounties: one for showing us instances

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AI Impacts research bounties

We are offering rewards for several inputs to our research, described below. These offers have no specific deadline except where noted. We may modify them or take them down, but will give at least one week’s notice

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Time flies when robots rule the earth

This week Robin Hanson is finishing off his much anticipated book, The Age of Em: Work, Love and Life When Robots Rule the Earth. He recently told me that it would be helpful to include rough numbers for the brain’s memory and computing capacity in

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AI Timelines

Costs of human-level hardware

Computing hardware which is equivalent to the brain – in terms of FLOPS probably costs between $1 x 105 and $3 x 1016, or $2/hour-$700bn/hour. in terms of TEPS probably costs $200M – $7B, or or $4,700 – $170,000/hour

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AI Timelines

Brain performance in FLOPS

Five credible estimates of brain computing capacity in terms of FLOPS by others that we are aware of are spread across the range from 3 x 1013 to 1025 FLOPS. The median estimate is 1018 FLOPS. Our own estimate of

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AI Timelines

Index of articles about hardware

Hardware in terms of computing capacity (FLOPS and MIPS) Brain performance in FLOPS Current FLOPS prices Trends in the cost of computing Wikipedia history of GFLOPS costs Hardware in terms of communication capacity (TEPS) Brain performance in TEPS (includes the

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AI Timelines

Cost of human-level information storage

It costs roughly $300-$3000 to buy enough storage space to store all information contained by a human brain. Support The human brain probably stores around 10-100TB of data. Data storage costs around $30/TB. Thus it costs roughly $300-$3000 to buy