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Update on all the AI predictions

For the last little while, we’ve been looking into a dataset of individual AI predictions, collected by MIRI a couple of years ago. We also previously gathered all the surveys about AI predictions that we could find. Together, these are all the public predictions

AI Timelines

Predictions of Human-Level AI Timelines

Updated 5 June 2015 We know of around 1,300 public predictions of when human-level AI will arrive, of varying levels of quality. These include predictions from individual statements and larger surveys. Median predictions tend to be

Accuracy of AI Predictions

Accuracy of AI Predictions

Updated 4 June 2015 It is unclear how informative we should expect expert predictions about AI timelines to be. Individual predictions are undoubtedly often off by many decades, since they disagree with each other. However their aggregate may still be quite informative. The