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AI Timeline Surveys

AGI-11 Survey

The AGI-11 survey was a survey of 60 participants at the AGI-11 conference. In it: Nearly half of respondents believed that AGI would appear before 2030. Nearly 90% of respondents believed that AGI would appear

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Qualitative landscape

Hardware overhang

Hardware overhang refers to a situation where large quantities of computing hardware can be diverted to running powerful AI systems as soon as the software is developed. Details Definition In the context of AI forecasting, hardware overhang refers


Interpreting AI Compute Trends

This is a guest post by Ryan Carey. Over the last few years, we know that AI experiments have used much more computation than previously. But just last month, an investigation by OpenAI made some


Occasional update July 5 2018

Before I get to substantive points, there has been some confusion over the distinction between blog posts and pages on AI Impacts. To make it clearer, this blog post shall proceed in a way that


The tyranny of the god scenario

Michael Wulfsohn is an AI Impacts researcher/contributor. I was convinced. An intelligence explosion would result in the sudden arrival of a superintelligent machine. Its abilities would far exceed those of humans in ways we can’t

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Research problems

Promising research projects

This is an incomplete list of concrete projects that we think are tractable and important. We may do any of them ourselves, but many also seem feasible to work on independently. Those we consider especially