…since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month-doubling time (by comparison, Moore’s Law had an 18-month doubling period). Since 2012, this metric has grown by more than 300,000x (an 18-month doubling period would yield only a 12x increase)…
They give the following figure, and some of their calculations. We have not verified their calculations, or looked for other reports on this issue.
An analysis of historical growth supports the possibility of radical increases in growth rate. Naive extrapolation of long-term trends would suggest massive increases in growth rate over the coming century, although growth over the last
We know of around 1,300 public predictions of when human-level AI will arrive, of varying levels of quality. These include predictions from individual statements and larger surveys. Median predictions tend to be between 2030 and 2055
It is unclear how informative we should expect expert predictions about AI timelines to be. Individual predictions are undoubtedly often off by many decades, since they disagree with each other. However their aggregate may still be quite informative. The main potential reason we