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Qualitative landscape

Hardware overhang

Hardware overhang refers to a situation where large quantities of computing hardware can be diverted to running powerful AI systems as soon as the software is developed. Details Definition In the context of AI forecasting, hardware overhang refers

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AI Timelines

Discontinuity from the Eiffel Tower

The Eiffel Tower represented a 54 year discontinuity in the height of existing structures. It represented an 8,000 year discontinuity in the height of the tallest structure ever built. Details Wikipedia provides several lists of

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AI Timelines

Discontinuity from the Burj Khalifa

The Burj Khalifa represented a large (175 year) discontinuity in the trend of maximum building heights over time. It did not represent a particular discontinuity in the trend of maximum structure heights over time. Details

Blog

Interpreting AI Compute Trends

This is a guest post by Ryan Carey. Over the last few years, we know that AI experiments have used much more computation than previously. But just last month, an investigation by OpenAI made some

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Occasional update July 5 2018

Before I get to substantive points, there has been some confusion over the distinction between blog posts and pages on AI Impacts. To make it clearer, this blog post shall proceed in a way that