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Qualitative landscape

Hardware overhang

Hardware overhang refers to a situation where large quantities of computing hardware can be diverted to running powerful AI systems as soon as the software is developed. Details Definition In the context of AI forecasting, hardware overhang refers

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AI Timelines

Historic trends in structure heights

Trends for tallest ever structure heights, tallest ever freestanding structure heights, tallest existing freestanding structure heights, and tallest ever building heights have each seen 5-8 discontinuities of more than ten years. These are: Djoser and

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Interpreting AI Compute Trends

This is a guest post by Ryan Carey. Over the last few years, we know that AI experiments have used much more computation than previously. But just last month, an investigation by OpenAI made some

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Occasional update July 5 2018

Before I get to substantive points, there has been some confusion over the distinction between blog posts and pages on AI Impacts. To make it clearer, this blog post shall proceed in a way that