February 2019 – AI Impacts

Primates vs birds: Is one brain architecture better than the other?

By Tegan McCaslin, 28 February 2019 The boring answer to that question is, “Yes, birds.” But that’s only because birds can pack more neurons into a walnut-sized brain than a monkey with a brain four

Image credit: By J. Arthur Thomson - http://www.gutenberg.org/files/17786/17786-h/17786-h.htm, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=9943793

Investigation into the relationship between neuron count and intelligence across differing cortical architectures

Survey participants (n = 83) were given anonymized descriptions of behavior in the wild for four animals: one bird species and one primate species with a similar neuron count, and one bird species and one

Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project: an accompanying blog post

By Daniel Kokotajlo, 2 July 2019 Figure 0: The “four main determinants of forecasting accuracy.” Experience and data from the Good Judgment Project (GJP) provide important evidence about how to make accurate predictions. For a

Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project

According to experience and data from the Good Judgment Project, the following are associated with successful forecasting, in rough decreasing order of combined importance and confidence: Past performance in the same broad domain Making more