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Home2023March

Month: March 2023

Blog

How bad a future do ML researchers expect?

Every survey respondent’s guess about the future, lined up by expectation of the worst.

Blog

How popular is ChatGPT? Part 2: slower growth than Pokémon GO

ChatGPT had unusually fast user growth, but it did not set a record.

Blog

Scoring forecasts from the 2016 “Expert Survey on Progress in AI”

Patrick Levermore, 1 March 2023 Summary This document looks at the predictions made by AI experts in The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI, analyses the predictions on ‘Narrow tasks’, and gives a Brier score to

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  • How bad a future do ML researchers expect?
  • How popular is ChatGPT? Part 2: slower growth than Pokémon GO
  • Scoring forecasts from the 2016 “Expert Survey on Progress in AI”
  • How popular is ChatGPT? Part 1: more popular than Taylor Swift
  • The public supports regulating AI for safety
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