AI Impacts

Selected Citations

This page is out-of-date. Visit the updated version of this page on our wiki. A non-exhaustive collection of places where AI Impacts’ work has been cited. Contents AI TimelinesComputing Power and the BrainCost of ComputingMathematical

Error in Armstrong and Sotala 2012

By Katja Grace, 17 May 2016 Can AI researchers say anything useful about when strong AI will arrive? Back in 2012, Stuart Armstrong and Kaj Sotala weighed in on this question in a paper called ‘How We’re

Metasurvey: predict the predictors

By Katja Grace, 12 May 2016 As I mentioned earlier, we’ve been making a survey for AI researchers. The survey asks when AI will be able to do things like build a lego kit according to the instructions, be a surgeon, or radically

Concrete AI tasks bleg

By Katja Grace, 30 March 2016 We’re making a survey. I hope to write soon about our general methods and plans, so anyone kind enough to criticize them has the chance. Before that though, we have a different request: we want a list

Mysteries of global hardware

By Katja Grace, 7 March 2016 This blog post summarizes recent research on our Global Computing Capacity page. See that page for full citations and detailed reasoning. We recently investigated this intriguing puzzle: FLOPS (then) apparently performed by all of the world’s computing

Global computing capacity

[This page is out of date and its contents may have been inaccurate in 2015, in light of new information that we are yet to integrate. See Computing capacity of all GPUs and TPUs for a related

Coordinated human action as example of superhuman intelligence

Collections of humans organized into groups and institutions provide many historical examples of the creation and attempted control of intelligences that routinely outperform individual humans. A preliminary look at the available evidence suggests that individuals

Recently at AI Impacts

By Katja Grace, 24 November 2015 We’ve been working on a few longer term projects lately, so here’s an update in the absence of regular page additions. Contents New researchersAI progress surveyAI researcher interviewsBounty submissionsGlossary New researchers

Glossary of AI Risk Terminology and common AI terms

Contents TermsAAI timelineArtificial General Intelligence (also, AGI)Artificial Intelligence (also, AI)Associative value accretionAnthropic captureAnthropic reasoningAugmentationBBackpropagationBoxingCCapability control methodsCognitive enhancementCollective superintelligenceComputationThe common good principleCrucial considerationDDecisive strategic advantageDirect specificationDomesticityEEmulation modulationEvolutionary selection approach to value learningExistential riskFFeatureFirst principal-agent problemGGenieHHardware overhangHuman-level

AI timelines and strategies

AI Impacts sometimes invites guest posts from fellow thinkers on the future of AI. These are not intended to relate closely to our current research, nor to necessarily reflect our views. However we think they are worthy contributions to the discussion of AI forecasting and strategy. This