AI Impacts

Early Views of AI

This is an incomplete list of early works we have found discussing AI or AI related problems. List 1. Claude Shannon (1950), in Programming a Computer for Playing Chess, offers the following list of “possible developments in

FHI Winter Intelligence Survey

The Future of Humanity Institute administered a survey in 2011 at their Winter Intelligence AGI impacts conference. Participants’ median estimate for a 50% chance of human-level AI was 2050. Contents DetailsAI timelines questionParticipants and selection

Hanson AI Expert Survey

In a small informal survey running since 2012, AI researchers generally estimated that their subfields have moved less than ten percent of the way to human-level intelligence. Only one (in the slowest moving subfield) observed acceleration.

Müller and Bostrom AI Progress Poll

Vincent Müller and Nick Bostrom of FHI conducted a poll of four groups of AI experts in 2012-13. Combined, the median date by which they gave a 10% chance of human-level AI was 2022, and the

Kruel AI Interviews

Alexander Kruel interviewed 37 experts on areas related to AI, starting in 2011 and probably ending in 2012. Of those answering the question in a full quantitative way, median estimates for human-level AI (assuming business as usual)

Klein AGI Survey

Futurist Bruce Klein ran an informal online survey in 2007, asking ‘When will AI surpass human-level intelligence?”. He got 888 responses, from ‘friends’ of unspecified nature. Details The results are shown below, taken from Baum et al,

Similarity Between Historical and Contemporary AI Predictions

AI predictions from public statements made before and after 2000 form similar distributions. Such predictions from before 1980 appear to be more optimistic, though predictions from a larger early survey are not. Contents DiscussionSimilarity of predictions over timeMIRI datasetSurvey dataArmstrong

Human-Level AI

Published 23 January 2014, last updated Aug 7 2022 ‘Human-level AI’ refers to AI which can reproduce everything a human can do, approximately. Several variants of this concept are worth distinguishing. Contents DetailsVariations in the meaning