AI Impacts

Time for AI to cross the human range in English draughts

AI took over 30 years to go from beginner level to superhuman level

Time for AI to cross the human range in StarCraft

AI took about twenty years to go from beginner level to high professional level.

Time for AI to cross the human performance range in ImageNet image classification

Computer image classification performance took 3 years to go from untrained human level to trained human level

Time for AI to cross the human performance range in Go

Computer Go took over 30 years to go from beginner level to superhuman.

Time for AI to cross the human performance range in chess

Computer chess took around 50 years to go from beginner level to superhuman level.

Relevant pre-AGI possibilities

Daniel Kokotajlo June 2020
Brainstorm of ways the world could be relevantly different by the time advanced AGI arrives

Map of the first transatlantic telegraph

Description vs simulated prediction

Rick Korzekwa April 2020
What are we trying to do when we look at history to inform forecasting?

Surveys on fractional progress towards HLAI

How long until human-level performance, if we naively extrapolate progress since researchers joined their subfields?

2019 recent trends in Geekbench score per CPU price

From 2006 – 2020, Geekbench score per CPU price has grown by around 16% a year, for rates that would yield an order of magnitude over roughly 16 years.

Precedents for economic n-year doubling before 4n-year doubling

Does the economy ever double without having first doubled four times slower? Yes, but not since 3000BC.