Articles by Katja Grace

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AI Timeline Surveys

Müller and Bostrom AI Progress Poll

Vincent Müller and Nick Bostrom of FHI conducted a poll of four groups of AI experts in 2012-13. Combined, the median date by which they gave a 10% chance of human-level AI was 2022, and the

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AI Timeline Surveys

Kruel AI Interviews

Alexander Kruel interviewed 37 experts on areas related to AI, starting in 2011 and probably ending in 2012. Of those answering the question in a full quantitative way, median estimates for human-level AI (assuming business as usual)

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AI Timeline Surveys

Klein AGI Survey

Futurist Bruce Klein ran an informal online survey in 2007, asking ‘When will AI surpass human-level intelligence?”. He got 888 responses, from ‘friends’ of unspecified nature. Details The results are shown below, taken from Baum et al,

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Accuracy of AI Predictions

Similarity Between Historical and Contemporary AI Predictions

AI predictions from public statements made before and after 2000 form similar distributions. Such predictions from before 1980 appear to be more optimistic, though predictions from a larger early survey are not. Discussion Similarity of predictions over time MIRI dataset

Clarifying concepts

Human-Level AI

Published 23 January 2014, last updated Aug 7 2022 ‘Human-level AI’ refers to AI which can reproduce everything a human can do, approximately. Several variants of this concept are worth distinguishing. Details Variations in the meaning