Katja Grace – Page 5

Energy efficiency of Wright Flyer

The Wright Flyer flew around 0.08-0.17m/kJ, and moved mass at around .02 – .06 kg.m/J

Automated intelligence is not AI

Katja Grace Nov 2020

Sometimes we think of ‘artificial intelligence’ as whatever technology ultimately automates human cognitive labor…

Time for AI to cross the human range in English draughts

AI took over 30 years to go from beginner level to superhuman level

Time for AI to cross the human range in StarCraft

AI took about twenty years to go from beginner level to high professional level.

Time for AI to cross the human performance range in ImageNet image classification

Computer image classification performance took 3 years to go from untrained human level to trained human level

Time for AI to cross the human performance range in Go

Computer Go took over 30 years to go from beginner level to superhuman.

Time for AI to cross the human performance range in chess

Computer chess took around 50 years to go from beginner level to superhuman level.

Precedents for economic n-year doubling before 4n-year doubling

Does the economy ever double without having first doubled four times slower? Yes, but not since 3000BC.

Discontinuous progress in history: an update

Katja Grace April 2020
We’ve been looking for historic cases of discontinuously fast technological progress, to help with reasoning about the likelihood and consequences of abrupt progress in AI capabilities. We recently finished expanding this investigation to 37 technological trends. This blog post is a quick update on our findings. See the main page on the research and its outgoing links for more details.

Atari early

By Katja Grace, 1 April 2020 Deepmind announced that their Agent57 beats the ‘human baseline’ at all 57 Atari games usually used as a benchmark. I think this is probably enough to resolve one of

AI Impacts

Articles by Katja Grace