Katja Grace – Page 7

Comparison of naturally evolved and engineered solutions

This page describes a project that is in progress, and does not yet have results We are comparing naturally evolved and engineered solutions to problems, to learn about regularities that might let us make inferences

Historic trends in ship size

This page may be out-of-date. Visit the updated version of this page on our wiki. Trends for ship tonnage (builder’s old measurement) and ship displacement for Royal Navy first rate line-of-battle ships saw eleven and

Effects of breech loading rifles on historic trends in firearm progress

Published Feb 7 2020 We do not know if breech loading rifles represented a discontinuity in military strength. They probably did not represent a discontinuity in fire rate. Details This case study is part of

Historic trends in transatlantic passenger travel

The speed of human travel across the Atlantic Ocean has seen at least seven discontinuities of more than ten years’ progress at past rates, two of which represented more than one hundred years’ progress at

Etzioni 2016 survey

Oren Etzioni surveyed 193 AAAI fellows in 2016 and found that 67% of them expected that ‘we will achieve Superintelligence’ someday, but in more than 25 years. Details Oren Etzioni, CEO of the Allen Institute

Historic trends in particle accelerator performance

Published Feb 7 2020 None of particle energy, center-of-mass energy nor Lorentz factor achievable by particle accelerators appears to have undergone a discontinuity of more than ten years of progress at previous rates. Details This

AI conference attendance

Six of the largest seven AI conferences hosted a total of 27,396 attendees in 2018. Attendance at these conferences has grown by an average of 21% per year over 2011-2018. These six conferences host around six

Historical economic growth trends

An analysis of historical growth supports the possibility of radical increases in growth rate. Naive extrapolation of long-term trends would suggest massive increases in growth rate over the coming century, although growth over the last

On the (in)applicability of corporate rights cases to digital minds

This is a guest cross-post by Cullen O’Keefe, 28 September 2018 High-Level Takeaway The extension of rights to corporations likely does not provide useful analogy to potential extension of rights to digital minds. Introduction Examining

Hardware overhang

Hardware overhang refers to a situation where large quantities of computing hardware can be diverted to running powerful AI systems as soon as the software is developed. Details Definition In the context of AI forecasting, hardware overhang refers

AI Impacts

Articles by Katja Grace