Baum et al. surveyed 21 attendees of the AGI-09 conference, on AGI timelines with and without extra funding. They also asked about other details of AGI development such as social impacts, and promising approaches. Their findings include the following:
This is an incomplete list of early works we have found discussing AI or AI related problems. List 1. Claude Shannon (1950), in Programming a Computer for Playing Chess, offers the following list of “possible developments in
The Future of Humanity Institute administered a survey in 2011 at their Winter Intelligence AGI impacts conference. Participants’ median estimate for a 50% chance of human-level AI was 2050. Details AI timelines question The survey included
In a small informal survey running since 2012, AI researchers generally estimated that their subfields have moved less than ten percent of the way to human-level intelligence. Only one (in the slowest moving subfield) observed acceleration.
Futurist Bruce Klein ran an informal online survey in 2007, asking ‘When will AI surpass human-level intelligence?”. He got 888 responses, from ‘friends’ of unspecified nature. Details The results are shown below, taken from Baum et al,
Alexander Kruel interviewed 37 experts on areas related to AI, starting in 2011 and probably ending in 2012. Of those answering the question in a full quantitative way, median estimates for human-level AI (assuming business as usual)
AI predictions from public statements made before and after 2000 form similar distributions. Such predictions from before 1980 appear to be more optimistic, though predictions from a larger early survey are not. Discussion Similarity of predictions over time MIRI dataset