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Accuracy of AI Predictions

Chance date bias

There is modest evidence that people consistently forecast events later when asked the probability that the event occurs by a certain year, rather than the year in which a certain probability of the event will

AI Timelines

Recent trend in the cost of computing

The cheapest hardware prices (for single precision FLOPS/$) appear to be falling by around an order of magnitude every 10-16 years. This rate is slower than the trend of FLOPS/$ observed over the past quarter century,

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AI Timeline Surveys

Automation of music production

Most machine learning researchers expect machines will be able to create top quality music by 2036. Details Evidence from survey data In the 2016 ESPAI, participants were asked two relevant questions: [Top forty] Compose a

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AI Timeline Surveys

2016 ESPAI questions printout

This page is a printout of the survey questions provided by the Qualtrics website as a word document, and then copied here, for searchability. It contains formatting differences with the survey as received by participants, and probably

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AI Timeline Surveys

Media discussion of 2016 ESPAI

The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI was discussed in at least 20 media outlets, popular blogs, and industry-specific sites that we know of. Most of them were summaries of the survey findings. Commonly

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AI Timelines

Guide to pages on AI timeline predictions

This page is an informal outline of the other pages on this site about AI timeline predictions made by others. Headings link to higher level pages, intended to summarize the evidence from pages below them. This list was complete on 7 April 2017 (here is

AI Inputs

Progress in general purpose factoring

The largest number factored to date grew by about 4.5 decimal digits per year over the past roughly half-century. Between 1988, when we first have good records, and 2009, when the largest number to date was factored, progress was