Hardware and AI Timelines

Trends in DRAM price per gigabyte

The price of a gigabyte of DRAM has fallen by about a factor of ten every 5 years from 1957 to 2020. Since 2010, the price has fallen much more slowly, at a rate that

AI Timelines

2019 recent trends in GPU price per FLOPS

We estimate that in recent years, GPU prices have fallen at rates that would yield an order of magnitude over roughly: 17 years for single-precision FLOPS 10 years for half-precision FLOPS 5 years for half-precision

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AI Timeline Surveys

Walsh 2017 survey

Toby Walsh surveyed hundreds of experts and non-experts in 2016 and found their median estimates for ‘when a computer might be able to carry out most human professions at least as well as a typical

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AI Timeline Surveys

Etzioni 2016 survey

Oren Etzioni surveyed 193 AAAI fellows in 2016 and found that 67% of them expected that ‘we will achieve Superintelligence’ someday, but in more than 25 years. Details Oren Etzioni, CEO of the Allen Institute

AI Inputs

AI conference attendance

Six of the largest seven AI conferences hosted a total of 27,396 attendees in 2018. Attendance at these conferences has grown by an average of 21% per year over 2011-2018. These six conferences host around six