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AI Timeline Surveys

Automation of music production

Most machine learning researchers expect machines will be able to create top quality music by 2036. Details Evidence from survey data In the 2016 ESPAI, participants were asked two relevant questions: [Top forty] Compose a

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AI Timeline Surveys

2016 ESPAI questions printout

This page is a printout of the survey questions provided by the Qualtrics website as a word document, and then copied here, for searchability. It contains formatting differences with the survey as received by participants, and probably

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AI Timeline Surveys

Media discussion of 2016 ESPAI

The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI was discussed in at least 20 media outlets, popular blogs, and industry-specific sites that we know of. Most of them were summaries of the survey findings. Commonly

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AI Timelines

Guide to pages on AI timeline predictions

This page is an informal outline of the other pages on this site about AI timeline predictions made by others. Headings link to higher level pages, intended to summarize the evidence from pages below them. This list was complete on 7 April 2017 (here is

AI Inputs

Progress in general purpose factoring

The largest number factored to date grew by about 4.5 decimal digits per year over the past roughly half-century. Between 1988, when we first have good records, and 2009, when the largest number to date was factored, progress was

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AI Timelines

Trends in algorithmic progress

Algorithmic progress has been estimated to contribute fifty to one hundred percent as much as hardware progress to overall performance progress, with low confidence. Algorithmic improvements appear to be relatively incremental. Details We have not recently examined this topic carefully

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AI Inputs

Funding of AI Research

Provisional data suggests: Equity deals made with startups in AI were worth about $5bn in 2016, and this value has been growing by around 50% per year in recent years. The number of equity deals in AI startups globally

AI Timeline Surveys

2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI

The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI is a survey of machine learning researchers that AI Impacts ran in collaboration with others in 2016. Details Some results are reported in When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence

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AI Timeline Surveys

Concrete AI tasks for forecasting

This page contains a list of relatively well specified AI tasks designed for forecasting. Currently all entries were used in the 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI. List Translate a text written in a newly discovered language