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AI Timeline Surveys

Etzioni 2016 survey

Oren Etzioni surveyed 193 AAAI fellows in 2016 and found that 67% of them expected that ‘we will achieve Superintelligence’ someday, but in more than 25 years. Details Oren Etzioni, CEO of the Allen Institute

AI Inputs

AI conference attendance

Six of the largest seven AI conferences hosted a total of 27,396 attendees in 2018. Attendance at these conferences has grown by an average of 21% per year over 2011-2018. These six conferences host around six

AI Timelines

Historical economic growth trends

An analysis of historical growth supports the possibility of radical increases in growth rate. Naive extrapolation of long-term trends would suggest massive increases in growth rate over the coming century, although growth over the last

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AI Timeline Surveys

AGI-11 Survey

The AGI-11 survey was a survey of 60 participants at the AGI-11 conference. In it: Nearly half of respondents believed that AGI would appear before 2030. Nearly 90% of respondents believed that AGI would appear

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AI Timelines

Electrical efficiency of computing

Computer performance per watt has probably doubled every 1.5 years between 1945 and 2000. Since then the trend slowed. By 2015, performance per watt appeared to be doubling every 2.5 years. Details In 2011 Jon

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Hardware and AI Timelines

Nordhaus hardware price performance dataset

This page contains the data from Appendix 2 of William Nordhaus’ The progress of computing in usable formats. Notes This data was collected from Appendix 2 of The progress of computing, using Tabula (a program for turning