AI Timelines – AI Impacts

2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI

Collected data and analysis from a large survey of machine learning researchers.

Was the industrial revolution a drastic departure from historic trends?

We have not researched this topic. This page is a tentative list of sources.

Surveys on fractional progress towards HLAI

How long until human-level performance, if we naively extrapolate progress since researchers joined their subfields?

2019 recent trends in Geekbench score per CPU price

From 2006 – 2020, Geekbench score per CPU price has grown by around 16% a year, for rates that would yield an order of magnitude over roughly 16 years.

Resolutions of mathematical conjectures over time

The time-to-proof for past mathematical problems currently remembered as notable is exponentially distributed with a half life of around 100 years.

Trends in DRAM price per gigabyte

The price of a gigabyte of DRAM has fallen by about a factor of ten every 5 years from 1957 to 2020. Since 2010, the price has fallen much more slowly, at a rate that

2019 recent trends in GPU price per FLOPS

Published 25 March, 2020 We estimate that in recent years, GPU prices have fallen at rates that would yield an order of magnitude over roughly: Details GPUs (graphics processing units) are specialized electronic circuits originally

Comparison of naturally evolved and engineered solutions

This page describes a project that is in progress, and does not yet have results We are comparing naturally evolved and engineered solutions to problems, to learn about regularities that might let us make inferences

Walsh 2017 survey

Toby Walsh surveyed hundreds of experts and non-experts in 2016 and found their median estimates for ‘when a computer might be able to carry out most human professions at least as well as a typical

Etzioni 2016 survey

Oren Etzioni surveyed 193 AAAI fellows in 2016 and found that 67% of them expected that ‘we will achieve Superintelligence’ someday, but in more than 25 years. Details Oren Etzioni, CEO of the Allen Institute