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AI Timelines

Discontinuity from the Eiffel Tower

The Eiffel Tower represented a 54 year discontinuity in the height of existing structures. It represented an 8,000 year discontinuity in the height of the tallest structure ever built. Details Wikipedia provides several lists of

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AI Timelines

Discontinuity from the Burj Khalifa

The Burj Khalifa represented a large (175 year) discontinuity in the trend of maximum building heights over time. It did not represent a particular discontinuity in the trend of maximum structure heights over time. Details

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AI Timelines

Electrical efficiency of computing

Computer performance per watt has probably doubled every 1.5 years between 1945 and 2000. Since then the trend slowed. By 2015, performance per watt appeared to be doubling every 2.5 years. Details In 2011 Jon

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Hardware and AI Timelines

Nordhaus hardware price performance dataset

This page contains the data from Appendix 2 of William Nordhaus’ The progress of computing in usable formats. Notes This data was collected from Appendix 2 of The progress of computing, using Tabula (a program for turning

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AI Timelines

2015 FLOPS prices

In April 2015, the lowest GFLOPS prices we could find were approximately $3/GFLOPS. However recent records of hardware performance from 2015 and earlier imply substantially lower prices, suggesting that something confusing has happened with these

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AI Timelines

Human-level hardware timeline

We estimate that ‘human-level hardware’— hardware able to perform as many computations per second as a human brain, at a similar cost to a human brain—has a 30% chance of having already occurred, a 45%