Against a General Factor of Doom

If you ask people a bunch of specific doomy questions, and their answers are suspiciously correlated, they might be expressing their p(Doom) for each question instead of answering the questions individually. Using a general factor of doom is unlikely to be an accurate depiction of reality. The future is likely to be surprisingly doomy in some ways and surprisingly tractable in others.


Notes on an Experiment with Markets

AI Impacts decided to try using Manifold Markets to help us plan social events in the evenings of our work retreat. Here are some notes from that experiment.


April files

Katja Grace April 2021

Internal drafts for feedback