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What we’ve been up to and funding we think we could use well

If you ask people a bunch of specific doomy questions, and their answers are suspiciously correlated, they might be expressing their p(Doom) for each question instead of answering the questions individually. Using a general factor of doom is unlikely to be an accurate depiction of reality. The future is likely to be surprisingly doomy in some ways and surprisingly tractable in others.

AI Impacts decided to try using Manifold Markets to help us plan social events in the evenings of our work retreat. Here are some notes from that experiment.

Sixteen weaknesses in the classic argument for AI risk.

Katja Grace Aug 4 2022

First findings from the new 2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI.

Katja Grace Mar 2022

My grounds for spending my time on this: a hand-wavy account.

by Rick Korzekwa, 2 February, 2022 Summary In this post I outline apparent regularities in how major new technological capabilities and methods come about. I have not rigorously checked to see how broadly they hold,

Katja Grace Sept 2021

Fire alarms are the wrong way to think about the public AGI conversation.

Daniel Kokotajlo June 2021

Write down how AI will go down!