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As part of our AI optimism project, we talked to Paul Christiano about why he is relatively hopeful about the arrival of advanced AI going well. Paul Christiano works on AI alignment on the safety

Crossposted from the AI Alignment Forum. May contain more technical jargon than usual. [Epistemic status: Argument by analogy to historical cases. Best case scenario it’s just one argument among many. Edit: Also, thanks to feedback from

Earlier this month, I spoke with Ernie Davis about why he is skeptical that risks from superintelligent AI are substantial and tractable enough to merit dedicated work. This was part of a larger project that

The boring answer to that question is, “Yes, birds.” But that’s only because birds can pack more neurons into a walnut-sized brain than a monkey with a brain four times that size. So let’s forget

Figure 0: The “four main determinants of forecasting accuracy.” Experience and data from the Good Judgment Project (GJP) provide important evidence about how to make accurate predictions. For a concise summary of the evidence and

This is a guest post by Ben Garfinkel. We revised it slightly, at his request, on February 9, 2019. A recent OpenAI blog post, “AI and Compute,” showed that the amount of computing power consumed

This is a guest cross-post by Cullen O’Keefe. High-Level Takeaway The extension of rights to corporations likely does not provide useful analogy to potential extension of rights to digital minds. Introduction Examining how law can

This is a guest post by Ryan Carey. Over the last few years, we know that AI experiments have used much more computation than previously. But just last month, an investigation by OpenAI made some

Before I get to substantive points, there has been some confusion over the distinction between blog posts and pages on AI Impacts. To make it clearer, this blog post shall proceed in a way that

Michael Wulfsohn is an AI Impacts researcher/contributor. I was convinced. An intelligence explosion would result in the sudden arrival of a superintelligent machine. Its abilities would far exceed those of humans in ways we can’t