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Answering decision-relevant questions about the future of artificial intelligence

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How bad a future do ML researchers expect?

Every survey respondent’s guess about the future, lined up by expectation of the worst.

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How popular is ChatGPT? Part 2: slower growth than Pokémon GO

ChatGPT had unusually fast user growth, but it did not set a record.

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Scoring forecasts from the 2016 “Expert Survey on Progress in AI”

Patrick Levermore, 1 March 2023 Summary This document looks at the predictions made by AI experts in The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI, analyses the predictions on ‘Narrow tasks’, and gives a Brier score to

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How popular is ChatGPT? Part 1: more popular than Taylor Swift

What does search volume tell us about public attention on ChatGPT and AI in general?

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The public supports regulating AI for safety

Some survey data

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Whole Bird Emulation requires Quantum Mechanics

Birds see magnetic fields using quantum mechanical spin states in their retina. Whole Bird Emulation requires much higher resolution than you might expect.

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Framing AI strategy

Ten angles on AI strategy

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Product safety is a poor model for AI governance

Relying on safety-checking after development is not sufficient.

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We don’t trade with ants

AI’s relationship with us will not be like our relationship with ants

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Let’s think about slowing down AI

18 or so reasons to reflexively dismiss slowing down AI and why I think they fail and leave it worth thinking seriously about.

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  • How bad a future do ML researchers expect?
  • How popular is ChatGPT? Part 2: slower growth than Pokémon GO
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  • The public supports regulating AI for safety
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