Search Results for “human range” – Page 3

Likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI

We aren’t convinced by any of the arguments we’ve seen to expect large discontinuity in AI progress above the extremely low base rate for all technologies. However this topic is controversial, and many thinkers on

How should we analyse survey forecasts of AI timelines?

Tom Adamczewski, 2024 The Expert Survey on Progress in AI (ESPAI) is a large survey of AI researchers about the future of AI, conducted in 2016, 2022, and 2023. One main focus of the survey

Machines and Moral Judgment

By Jacob Sparks This was a prize-winning entry into the Essay Competition on the Automation of Wisdom and Philosophy. §1 Good AGI The explicit goal of most major AI labs is to create artificial general

An Overview of “Obvious” Approaches to Training Wise AI Advisors

By Chris Leong This was a prize-winning entry into the Essay Competition on the Automation of Wisdom and Philosophy. I consider four different “obvious” high-level approaches to training wise AI advisors. I consider imitation learning

What we’ve learned so far from our technological temptations project

The history of geoengineering, nuclear power, and human challenge trials suggest that social norms and regulation exert powerful forces on the use of technology.

Scoring forecasts from the 2016 “Expert Survey on Progress in AI”

Patrick Levermore, 1 March 2023 Summary This document looks at the predictions made by AI experts in The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI, analyses the predictions on ‘Narrow tasks’, and gives a Brier score to

Whole Bird Emulation requires Quantum Mechanics

Birds see magnetic fields using quantum mechanical spin states in their retina. Whole Bird Emulation requires much higher resolution than you might expect.