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AI Timelines

Human-level hardware timeline

We estimate that ‘human-level hardware’— hardware able to perform as many computations per second as a human brain, at a similar cost to a human brain—has a 30% chance of having already occurred, a 45%

AI Timelines

Predictions of Human-Level AI Timelines

Note: This page is out of date. See an up-to-date version of this page on our wiki. Updated 5 June 2015 We know of around 1,300 public predictions of when human-level AI will arrive, of

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AI Timelines

Scale of the Human Brain

The brain has about 10¹¹ neurons and 1.8-3.2 x 10¹⁴ synapses. These probably account for the majority of computationally interesting behavior. Support Number of neurons in the brain The number of neurons in the brain is about 10¹¹. For

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AI Timelines

Neuron firing rates in humans

Our best guess is that an average neuron in the human brain transmits a spike about 0.1-2 times per second. Support Bias from neurons with sparse activity When researchers measure neural activity, they can fail to see neurons

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Preliminary prices for human-level hardware

By Katja Grace, 4 April 2015 Computer hardware has been getting cheap now for about seventy five years. Relatedly, large computing projects can afford to be increasingly large. If you think the human brain is something like

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The slow traversal of ‘human-level’

By Katja Grace, 21 January 2015 Once you have normal-human-level AI, how long does it take to get Einstein-level AI? We have seen that a common argument for ‘not long at all’ based on brain size does not

Clarifying concepts

Human-Level AI

Published 23 January 2014, last updated Aug 7 2022 ‘Human-level AI’ refers to AI which can reproduce everything a human can do, approximately. Several variants of this concept are worth distinguishing. Details Variations in the meaning

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Research problems

Promising research projects

This is an incomplete list of concrete projects that we think are tractable and important. We may do any of them ourselves, but many also seem feasible to work on independently. Those we consider especially