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Predictions of Human-Level AI Timelines

Note: This page is out of date. See an up-to-date version of this page on our wiki. Updated 5 June 2015 We know of around 1,300 public predictions of when human-level AI will arrive, of

Accuracy of AI Predictions

Updated 4 June 2015 It is unclear how informative we should expect expert predictions about AI timelines to be. Individual predictions are undoubtedly often off by many decades, since they disagree with each other. However their aggregate may still be quite informative. The

Brain performance in TEPS

Traversed Edges Per Second (TEPS) is a benchmark for measuring a computer’s ability to communicate information internally. Given several assumptions, we can also estimate the human brain’s communication performance in terms of TEPS, and use this

Neuron firing rates in humans

Our best guess is that an average neuron in the human brain transmits a spike about 0.1-2 times per second. Support Bias from neurons with sparse activity When researchers measure neural activity, they can fail to see neurons

Current FLOPS prices

In November 2017, we estimate the price for one GFLOPS to be between $0.03 and $3 for single or double precision performance, using GPUs (therefore excluding some applications). Amortized over three years, this is $1.1

The cost of TEPS

A billion Traversed Edges Per Second (a GTEPS) can be bought for around $0.26/hour via a powerful supercomputer, including hardware and energy costs only. We do not know if GTEPS can be bought more cheaply elsewhere. We estimate that

Wikipedia history of GFLOPS costs

This is a list from Wikipedia, showing hardware configurations that authors claim perform efficiently, along with their prices per GFLOPS at different times in recent history. In it, prices generally fall at around an order of magnitude every five years, and

Trends in the cost of computing

Posted 10 Mar 2015 Computing power available per dollar has probably increased by a factor of ten roughly every four years over the last quarter of a century (measured in FLOPS or MIPS). Over the past 6-8 years, the

How AI timelines are estimated

By Katja Grace, 9 February 2015 A natural approach to informing oneself about when human-level AI will arrive is to check what experts who have already investigated the question say about it. So we made this list of analyses that we could find. It’s

Discontinuous progress investigation

Published Feb 2, 2015; last substantially updated April 12 2020 We have collected cases of discontinuous technological progress to inform our understanding of whether artificial intelligence performance is likely to undergo such a discontinuity. This page

AI Impacts

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