Since 2016, AI Impacts has run the Expert Survey on Progress in AI (ESPAI), a large survey of researchers who publish at top AI venues. It asks when AI will reach human-level capabilities, how fast progress is likely to be, and how good or bad the consequences may be. It is the largest and longest-running survey of its kind, and its results are widely cited in research, policy and journalism.
Questions about how the survey is run, who is invited, response rates and possible biases are answered in the methodology FAQ. The latest paper is featured on the home page.
The surveys
- 20232023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI2,778 respondents from six top AI venues, the largest survey of AI researchers at the time. Paper: Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI (arXiv) · Summary in six charts · Reanalysis and open-source code · Wiki pagePDF ↓
- 20222022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI738 respondents. Summary of results · Wiki pageResults ↗
- 20162016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI352 respondents. Paper: When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts, Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research 2018 (arXiv, JAIR) · How its forecasts scored · Wiki pagePDF ↓
Related
How should we analyse survey forecasts of AI timelines? (Tom Adamczewski, 2024) · How bad a future do ML researchers expect? (2023) · What happens if you present 500 people with an argument that AI is risky? (2024)