blog – Page 3 – AI Impacts

Observed patterns around major technological advancements

by Rick Korzekwa, 2 February, 2022 Summary In this post I outline apparent regularities in how major new technological capabilities and methods come about. I have not rigorously checked to see how broadly they hold,

Beyond fire alarms: freeing the groupstruck

Katja Grace Sept 2021

Fire alarms are the wrong way to think about the public AGI conversation.

Vignettes workshop

Daniel Kokotajlo June 2021

Write down how AI will go down!

April files

Katja Grace April 2021

Internal drafts for feedback

Coherence arguments imply a force for goal-directed behavior

Katja Grace Mar 2021

Behavior that is permitted by the ‘coherence arguments’ may still be discouraged by them.

Misalignment and misuse: whose values are manifest?

Katja Grace Nov 2020

Are misalignment and misuse helpful catastrophe categories?

Automated intelligence is not AI

Katja Grace Nov 2020

Sometimes we think of ‘artificial intelligence’ as whatever technology ultimately automates human cognitive labor…

Relevant pre-AGI possibilities

Daniel Kokotajlo June 2020
Brainstorm of ways the world could be relevantly different by the time advanced AGI arrives

Map of the first transatlantic telegraph

Description vs simulated prediction

Rick Korzekwa April 2020
What are we trying to do when we look at history to inform forecasting?

Discontinuous progress in history: an update

Katja Grace April 2020
We’ve been looking for historic cases of discontinuously fast technological progress, to help with reasoning about the likelihood and consequences of abrupt progress in AI capabilities. We recently finished expanding this investigation to 37 technological trends. This blog post is a quick update on our findings. See the main page on the research and its outgoing links for more details.