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Etzioni 2016 survey

Oren Etzioni surveyed 193 AAAI fellows in 2016 and found that 67% of them expected that ‘we will achieve Superintelligence’ someday, but in more than 25 years. Details Oren Etzioni, CEO of the Allen Institute

Conversation with Rohin Shah

AI Impacts talked to AI safety researcher Rohin Shah about his views on AI risk. With his permission, we have transcribed this interview. Participants Rohin Shah — PhD student at the Center for Human-Compatible AI,

Conversation with Paul Christiano

AI Impacts talked to AI safety researcher Paul Christiano about his views on AI risk. With his permission, we have transcribed this interview. Participants Paul Christiano — OpenAI safety team Asya Bergal – AI Impacts

Conversation with Ernie Davis

AI Impacts spoke with computer scientist Ernie Davis about his views of AI risk. With his permission, we have transcribed this interview. Participants Ernest Davis – professor of computer science at the Courant Institute of

Evidence against current methods leading to human level artificial intelligence

This is a list of published arguments that we know of that current methods in artificial intelligence will not lead to human-level AI. Details Clarifications We take ‘current methods’ to mean techniques for engineering artificial

Historic trends in land speed records

Land speed records did not see any greater-than-10-year discontinuities relative to linear progress across all records. Considered as several distinct linear trends it saw discontinuities of 12, 13, 25, and 13 years, the first two

Methodology for discontinuous progress investigation

AI Impacts’ discontinuous progress investigation was conducted according to methodology outlined on this page. Details Contributions to the discontinuous progress investigation were made over at least 2015-2019, by a number of different people, and methods

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