By Katja Grace, 5 June 2015 For the last little while, we’ve been looking into a dataset of individual AI predictions, collected by MIRI a couple of years ago. We also previously gathered all the surveys about AI predictions that we
Note: This page is out of date. See an up-to-date version of this page on our wiki. Updated 5 June 2015 We know of around 1,300 public predictions of when human-level AI will arrive, of
Updated 4 June 2015 It is unclear how informative we should expect expert predictions about AI timelines to be. Individual predictions are undoubtedly often off by many decades, since they disagree with each other. However their aggregate may still be quite informative. The
