Will AI see sudden progress?

Will advanced AI let some small group of people or AI systems take over the world? AI X-risk folks and others have accrued lots of arguments about this over the years, but I think this

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AI Timelines

Electrical efficiency of computing

Computer performance per watt has probably doubled every 1.5 years between 1945 and 2000. Since then the trend slowed. By 2015, performance per watt appeared to be doubling every 2.5 years. Details In 2011 Jon

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Hardware and AI Timelines

Nordhaus hardware price performance dataset

This page contains the data from Appendix 2 of William Nordhaus’ The progress of computing in usable formats. Notes This data was collected from Appendix 2 of The progress of computing, using Tabula (a program for turning

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Historical Continuity of Progress

Discontinuity in altitude records

Rockets may have caused a discontinuity in altitude of human projectiles. This investigation is not complete. Details We have collected some altitude records, shown in Figure 1. It looks as though rockets may have represented